News and opinion about wildland fire
Updated at 8:25 a.m. MDT April 14, 2022
Operations Section Chief Shilow Norton said that decreasing winds on Wednesday allowed firefighters to make significant progress on the Hermits Peak Fire 12 miles northwest of Las Vegas, New Mexico. They used helicopters to drop water on the southeast side of the fire to support dozers as they constructed fire line. Crews nearly completed that line and hand crews worked through the night on steep portions of the east end that were inaccessible to dozers.
On the northeast side, south of the 266 Road and the Sapello River, firefighters were able to put in fire line in areas where the fire had moved out of the timber and into grass. Dozers also put in direct fireline south and southwest of San Ignacio.
Click to see all articles on Wildfire Today, including the most recent, about the Calf Canyon, Hermits Peak, and Cooks Peak fires.
Mapping Wednesday evening determined that the fire had burned about 7,000 acres.
Sheriff Chris Lopez said initial assessments have found five outbuildings that were destroyed but have not seen any homes that burned.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday for southwest winds 20 to 30 mph gusting to 40 with relative humidity of 4 to 10 percent.
The Hermits Peak Fire spread nearly four miles to the east on Tuesday, growing to 6,276 acres by Tuesday night according to the Santa Fe National Forest. (Reports from other government sources put it at 7,900 acres.) The fire is 12 miles northeast of Las Vegas, New Mexico. The east side of the fire has moved into flatter terrain, providing better access for firefighters. But until the wind speeds decrease, they will primarily be following the fire, picking up a few sections of the flanks as the head continues to move.
In a Wednesday morning briefing Operations Section Chief Shilow Norton said winds with sustained speeds of 48 mph gusting to 60 caused spot fires east of the fire Monday night. The fire continued to spread to the east-northeast on Tuesday and moved through the community of Las Dispensas. The 20 homes there had been prepped by firefighters in the last few days to reduce the chance of them burning. Mr. Norton said firefighters had to leave when the fire came through on Tuesday and later came back, but to his knowledge all of the homes were saved. The fire also impacted San Ignacio and Las Tusas. Firefighters are having some success, he said, in holding the northeast side of the fire in several places in the drainage along the Sapello River.
To see all articles about the Hermits Peak Fire on Wildfire Today, including the most recent, click HERE.
When the wind dies down, said Mr. Norton, previously completed fuel treatments east of the fire southwest of Sapello could be helpful in slowing the spread, allowing firefighters to take direct action. But with 48 mph winds, virtually nothing will stop the head of the fire. The wind has made it impossible for air tankers and helicopters to be effective.
The extreme fire activity prompted additional evacuations affecting the Canoncito area in the Manuelitas Creek drainage, locations near Manuelitas, and north of Gallinas.
The San Miguel County Sheriff’s Office has issued evacuation orders using the Ready, Set, Go! system. The following areas are in Go status (i.e., residents should be evacuating): Las Dispensas, Pendaries Village, San Ignacio, Las Tusas, Lone Pine Mesa, Canoncito, La Canada, Manuelitas, Lower Canyon Road in Gallinas Canyon and La Tewa, Chavez, County A3, Southwest Sapello, and Southern Tierra Monte-Canyon. The following areas are in Set status (i.e., residents should be preparing for a potential evacuation): Upper Rociada, Rociada, Pendaries Valley East, Penasco Blanco, South Carmen, Northern Tierra Monte-Canyon, Big Pine, Canovas Canyon, El Porvenir, Gallinas, and Trout Springs. An evacuation shelter is available at the Old Memorial Middle School gym located at the corner of Legion and Old National in Las Vegas, NM.
Red Flag Warnings are again in place for strong winds and low humidity. After a hard freeze Wednesday morning, it will be sunny and cool, with high temperatures far below normal.
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After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire. View all posts by Bill Gabbert
Did the Southern Hemisphere have a particularly Benign Fire Year the summer of 2021/2022 ?
I keep 2 browser windows open, to search for “Wildfire News”,
and 1 for “Wildfire News Australia South Africa South America Southern Hemisphere”.
The latter link reports almost nothing current for the Southern Hemisphere.
Is the Southern Hemisphere that Blessed fire-wise, or is it just the news bias of the search engines ?
From an Australian perspective, the 2021/22 summer fire season on the east coast had below-normal activity with few large fires and below normal ignitions. This was due primarily to the influence of a strong and persistent La Nina which brought widespread rain and flooding from southern Queensland down to eastern Victoria.
On the west coast, the south-west experienced its hottest recorded summer (December-February) with rainfall well below normal. There were a number of serious fires including in the Perth hills in late December, and in early February in forested country near Bridgetown and Denmark. These resulted in loss of a few houses, a timber treatment plant and widespread loss of farm fencing. On the same weekend two large fires burnt through agricultural lands further inland in the wheatbelt, resulting in extensive losses of stock, fencing, farm infrastructure and soil organic matter. These are major economic impacts.
Lightning activity in mid February caused a large number of ignitions through the wheatbelt, and in early March lightning again resulted in more than 60 ignitions across the forested south west, with two fires requiring multi-day suppression action.
The fires were covered by the media in Western Australia, but as there was no loss of human life and relatively little impact on settlements the coverage was short lived and didn’t rate highly with the main media outlets based on the east coast. Unfortunately, the most damaging fires in the agricultural country probably didn’t rate more than passing interest with urban West Australians in Perth and the major coastal towns.
Given that weather is our first Fire Order, it makes no difference if it’s an RX burn or a wildfire, it’s still fire. Armchair quarterbacking? No way. At a minimum, it’s our right to call out and question what led up to these blunders based on the “reasonable person standard.” Also, been there as a Burn Boss and a Hot Shot Supt. for many moons that wholly prescribes to Risk Management Gordon Graham’s “what’s predictable is preventable” truism even though derided as “hindsight bias” by the nayasayers and non-believers. In addition, the Rules of Engagement, Fire Orders, Watch Out Situations, LCES, etc. also apply because it’s still fire.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Fire Weather Outlook specifically for April 6, 2022, obtained with the archive option, was clearly available to anyone and everyone – especially – those USFS-trained, experienced professionals clearly indicate obviously forecasted high winds for several DAYS (1-8 days). ( https://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getfw.pl?date=220406 )
The April 6, 2022, SPC FWO synopsis stated: “New Mexico… Northwesterly pressure-gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph this afternoon from the Four Corners region into southern NM. A dry air mass currently over parts of the Great Basin (where dewpoints are in the low teens) will shift into the Four Corners / NM region by late afternoon. Downslope affects (sic) will support additional drying with RH values in the low teens to single digits likely. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel status (ERCs between the 50-70th percentile) will preclude a greater concern.”
Here is the 500 mb (mid atmosphere) NOAA Daily Weather Map for April 6, 2022, at 0700 AM, available to anyone and everyone as well, indicating some pretty stout winds in NM. ( https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20220406.html )
I was unable to obtain the fire weather forecast for that day. However, I was able to obtain this Public (Dis)information Officer gem from the Inciweb Incident Overview post for the third day after the Type 2 IMT took command on April 11, 2022: “The Las Dispensas prescribed fire on the Pecos/Las Vegas Ranger District of the Santa Fe National Forest was declared a wildfire at approximately 4:30 p.m. on April 6, 2022. ALTHOUGH FORECASTED WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE WITHIN PARAMETERS FOR THE PRESCRIBED FIRE, UNEXPECTED ERRATIC WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON CAUSED MULTIPLE SPOT FIRES THAT SPREAD OUTSIDE THE PROJECT BOUNDARY.” (emphasis added) ( https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8049/ )
I find it hard to believe that these conditions were within “parameters for the prescribed burn,” and most of all that the afternoon winds were “unexpected” and “erratic.”
This email is from Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Michael Kaplan from the Embry-Riddle AU in Prescott, AZ regarding the Hermit Fire debacle.
Michael Kaplan, Ph.D. Adjunct Faculty – Applied Aviation Sciences Applied Aviation Science Prescott Campus 3700 Willow Creek Road Prescott, AZ 86301 O: 7753008181 C: 7753008181 kaplanm1@erau.edu
“Attached are some interesting fields. If the key period was ~3-6 am on the 13th northeast of Santa Fe on the lee slope of the southern Sangre de Christo Mountains, lots of interesting mesoscale stuff may have been going on. Note below the incredibly dry air (RELH) and inversion in the midtroposphere at Albuquerque at 1200 UTC in the 600-400 mb layer (RED BELOW). Also at El Paso. Surface dry front was pronounced and cross mountain flow. Also very strong negative potential vorticity advection. All point to the likelihood of a tropopause fold forcing descending warm dry air into the fire location perhaps enhanced by downslope wave breaking on the lee slope bringing locally warm dry gusty winds to the burn location. Could have gusted to much more than 25 kts and very very dry air would accompany the descending leeside winds. Not a good burn day under any circumstances and these phenomena are easily predicted with an operational or research mesoscale numerical model.”
He included the “72365 ABQ Albuquerque Observations at 12Z 13 Apr 2022”
Plymouth State Weather Center Archived Skew-T sounding ( https://vortex.plymouth.edu/wxp/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt-a.cgi?id=KABQ&pl=skewt&yy=2022&mm=04&dd=13&hh=12&pt=parcel&size=800×600&pg=web )
University of Wyoming Upper Air Soundings Test Data for same site and sounding because unavailable above ( https://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2022&MONTH=04&FROM=1312&TO=1212&STNM=72365 )
“613.0 4012 -15.1 -35.1 16 0.32 274 44 296.8 297.9 296.8 598.0 4196 -16.3 -37.9 14 0.25 270 46 297.5 298.4 297.5 500.0 5520 -25.1 -58.1 3 0.03 270 65 302.4 302.5 302.4 470.0 5961 -28.0 -61.9 2 0.02 270 67 304.1 304.2 304.1 400.0 7110 -35.7 -71.7 1 0.01 275 69 308.5 308.5 308.5”
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